As the Donald Trump administration moves to approve sanctions exemptions for humanitarian aid to North Korea, there's growing interest in whether this will shift the stalled U.S.-North Korea relations. While the measures are limited, if North Korea interprets them as a signal to resume dialogue, it could potentially create a virtuous cycle leading to U.S.-North Korea contacts and an expanded mediating role for South Korea.

According to multiple government sources on February 6, the U.S. has agreed to consider some sanctions exemptions previously on hold at the United Nations (UN) Security Council's North Korea Sanctions Committee (1718 Committee), following a proposal from South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, who is currently visiting the U.S.

The 1718 Committee, which oversees sanctions enforcement against North Korea, can grant exemptions for humanitarian aid when necessary. However, this requires unanimous approval from all 15 member states, with the U.S. known to wield the most significant influence over North Korea-related humanitarian aid issues.

Diplomatic circles view this move not as a sign of structural policy change towards military or sanctions relief, but rather as a low-key confidence-building measure. It suggests that the U.S. is at least shifting from a stance of full pressure to one of relationship management.

Notably, humanitarian aid has often been used as an exploratory message to gauge the atmosphere before official negotiations between North Korea and the U.S., as it carries relatively low political risk.

Recently, with direct U.S.-North Korea contact virtually halted, North Korea has continued to enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities while strengthening military and strategic cooperation with Russia, shifting its foreign policy focus. The U.S. has maintained pressure on North Korea while trying to manage the risk of escalation. In this context, even limited measures that leave room for dialogue could be interpreted as a signal expanding diplomatic space.

Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers&#39; Party of Korea / Rodong Sinmun

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The key factor is North Korea's response. It remains unclear whether North Korea will interpret this move as a gesture for improving relations or dismiss it as merely symbolic. Particularly given the deepening North Korea-Russia ties, there's a possibility that North Korea might maintain a strategic wait-and-see approach rather than immediately responding to the U.S.'s limited conciliatory gestures.

Kim Soo-am, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated that this move is not a comprehensive support allowance but rather a resumption of approvals for some items that don't violate sanctions. He added that it falls short of the core sanctions relief North Korea has previously demanded, thus limiting its impact on restarting U.S.-North Korea dialogue.

There's also speculation that North Korea may not respond at all.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies, analyzed that for North Korea, which emphasizes self-reliance, humanitarian aid is no longer an effective lever to influence the regime. He suggested that since this doesn't address fundamental issues like sanctions relief that North Korea desires, it's unlikely to directly lead to dialogue.

Nevertheless, the potential impact tied to diplomatic schedules remains a variable. If the North Korea issue emerges as a major agenda item during President Trump's planned visit to China in April, the possibility of U.S.-North Korea contact could naturally arise.

If U.S.-North Korea dialogue resumes, it could also expand South Korea's recently narrowed diplomatic space. In this process, South Korea might have a greater opportunity to play the role of mediator or peacemaker.

Ultimately, the impact of these sanctions exemptions depends more on North Korea's response than the measures themselves. If North Korea signals willingness for dialogue, it could lead to U.S.-North Korea contacts and strengthened U.S.-South Korea cooperation. However, if North Korea remains unresponsive, it may end up being merely a symbolic gesture.

As the Donald Trump administration moves to approve sanctions exemptions for humanitarian …

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