The South Korean government recently expressed its intention to provide material support for recovery efforts in North Korea, which has suffered damage caused by heavy rainfall. Although the government urged a swift response, it remains uncertain whether North Korea will reciprocate amid strained inter-Korean relations.

On the afternoon of August 1, Park Jong Sul, Secretary General of the Korean Red Cross, stated in a briefing room on the third floor of the Seoul Government Complex, "We are willing to urgently provide necessary supplies to North Korean flood victims from the standpoint of humanitarianism and fraternity, considering the humanitarian difficulties faced by North Korean residents."

He added, "We are prepared to discuss the items, scale, and methods of support with the Central Committee of the North Korean Red Cross," and urged for a swift response.

This is the first time since 2012 that the government has directly proposed disaster relief support to North Korea. A Unification Ministry official explained, "We made this proposal because we estimate the scale of damage this year to be significant." He emphasized that the government remains committed to providing humanitarian assistance during crises. Despite strained inter-Korean relations, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's policy framework maintains that humanitarian aid is distinct from issues related to North Korea's nuclear program.

However, experts generally believe North Korea is unlikely to accept the proposal. Relations between the two Koreas have worsened under the Yoon administration. Since late last year, North Korea has labeled inter-Korean relations as those between hostile states, further escalating tensions. Additionally, North Korea appears unwilling to accept humanitarian aid from South Korea while rejecting efforts aimed at unification.

In May 2022, during a critical time when the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading, North Korea consistently ignored offers for practical talks regarding humanitarian support from the Yoon administration.

Recently, the situation has been exacerbated by the exchange of propaganda leaflets and broadcasts between private groups in the South and the South Korean military and the North's launch of propaganda leaflets and trash balloons. Furthermore, the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise, Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS), criticized by North Korea, makes a change in the current atmosphere unlikely.

Im Eul Chul, a professor at Kyungnam University, commented, "It seems difficult for North Korea to accept disaster relief while simultaneously facing U.S.-South Korea military exercises." Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, added, "Kim Jong Un is currently showcasing disaster leadership through rapid on-site guidance, criticism of officials, and activating crisis management systems," suggesting that North Korea will not create a scenario where it appears to accept support from South Korea.

In both 2011 and 2012, North Korea declined offers of disaster relief from South Korea after floods caused hundreds of casualties. It is anticipated that North Korea may either remain unresponsive to the current proposal or convey its stance through the media.

A South Korean Ministry of Unification official commented on these expectations: "We do not want to judge the situation preemptively and hope for a positive response to our proposal."

North Korean state media have reported that recent heavy rainfall has led to the declaration of special disaster emergency zones in areas along the Yalu River, including North Pyongan, Jagang, and Yanggang provinces. The reports indicate that over 4,100 households in Sinuiju and Uiju, nearly 3,000 acres of farmland, and numerous public buildings, facilities, roads, and railways have been affected by flooding. Although the reports mentioned casualties, they did not provide specific figures.

The South Korean government recently expressed its intention to provide material support …

Can Humanitarian Aid Bridge the Divide? South Korea's Offer to North Korea